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Pericles

7-12-06, 9:03pm

...assuming that you feel that the sh1t is really going to hit the fan over in the mid-east this time with multiple countries getting involved?

Right now I'm pretty much split between 2030/2040 and the non-us/emerging funds. Anything in here look like a good place to be with even higher fuel prices and more conflict?

CODE

Fund    Current
NAV/
Price         Returns
As of 07-12-2006        Average Annual Total Returns
As of 06-30-2006

     Last 4
Weeks    YTD Return    12 Month Return        1 year    3 years    5 years
    Ticker Symbol


Life Cycle Retirement Fund (PDF file)**
     N/A    $10.623         1.30%    1.05%    3.24%        3.9%    N/A    N/A

Life Cycle 2010 Fund (PDF file)**
     N/A    $10.754         1.77%    1.42%    4.31%        5.5%    N/A    N/A

Life Cycle 2020 Fund (PDF file)**
     N/A    $10.964         2.59%    2.15%    6.04%        8.0%    N/A    N/A

Life Cycle 2030 Fund (PDF file)**
     N/A    $11.083         3.22%    2.69%    7.09%        9.8%    N/A    N/A

Life Cycle 2040 Fund (PDF file)**
     N/A    $11.165         3.67%    3.04%    7.72%        10.9%    N/A    N/A

Stable Value Fund (PDF file)**
     N/A    $18.769         0.37%    2.45%    4.61%        4.6%    4.4%    4.8%

Core Bond Fund (PDF file)**
     N/A    $11.827         -0.21%    -0.24%    0.34%        -0.5%    2.2%    N/A

High Yield Bond Fund (PDF file)**
     N/A    $14.140         -0.13%    1.23%    1.62%        1.9%    6.4%    N/A

US Large Cap Stock Fund (PDF file)**
     N/A    $14.035         3.07%    0.09%    4.06%        7.8%    11.0%    N/A

Non US Developed Markets Fund (PDF file)**
     N/A    $16.761         8.04%    7.83%    23.21%        26.8%    22.5%    N/A

US Small Cap Stock Fund (PDF file)**
     N/A    $15.997         3.51%    1.59%    5.26%        13.3%    18.1%    N/A

Non US Emerging Markets Fund (PDF file)**
     N/A    $23.175         11.91%    6.24%    29.56%        33.7%    29.9%    N/A

DrZoidberg

7-13-06, 8:30am

might want to start looking into bond funds.

carloscai

7-13-06, 9:41am

I wonder if bond fund would be your best choice at this moment. I focused on international and small cap values. It worked wonderfully for the first 3 years, going up about 250%, but then at almost reaching historic high, although I know it's mature, there is nowhere for the money to go now.

I have been doing a lot of readings and research lately, it seem like for the long run, maybe a low-cost index fund would be a pretty good choice.

unsmart3d

1-15-08, 6:10am

My employer changed many of the funds on the first of the new year. I was wondering if someone could take a look at my choices and throw in their 2 cents.

I used to have:

20% Davis NY Venture A (NYVTX)
20% Fidelity Spartan U.S. Equity Index (FUSEX)
20% Phoenix Real Estate Securities A REIT (PHRAX)
20% American Beacon Small Cap (AVPAX)
20% Vanguard Global Equity (VHGEX)
Matching contributions (25 cents to the dollar) (ACS)

Now they've changed many of the ones on the list and added a few new ones. Would anyone recommend that I switch out of some of the ones they put me in by default? Here's the list of funds with the corresponding ticker (if applicable):

Fixed Income

Galliard Managed Income Portfolio (N/A)
Daily Liquidity Aggregate Bond Index Fund (N/A)
PIMCO High Yield Fund - Institutional Shares (PHIYX)
Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Inv (VIPSX)

Company Stock

ACS Stock Fund (ACS)

Large Cap Equity

Vanguard Windsor II Fund Admiral Shares (VWNAX)
Daily Liquidity Stock Index Fund (20%) (N/A)
Davis New York Venture Fund, Inc. - Class Y (20%) (DNVYX)
Harbor Capital Appreciation Fund, Instl Class (HACAX)

Mid-Cap Equity

Daily Liquidity Mid Cap Index Fund (N/A)
Kinetics Paradigm Fund (KNPYX)

Small Cap Equity

American Beacon Small Cap Value Fund, Instl Class (20%) (AVFIX)
Daily Liquidity Small Cap Index Fund (N/A)
William Blair Small Cap Growth Fund (I) (WBSIX)

Global/International Equity

Vanguard Global Equity Fund (20%) (VHGEX)
Dodge & Cox International Stock Fund (DODFX)
Daily Liquidity Intl Stock Index Fund (N/A)
Fidelity Diversified International Fund (FDIVX)
Columbia Acorn International Fund, Class Z (ACINX)
Lazard Emerging Markets Portfolio Instl Shrs (LZEMX)

Specialty

Vanguard REIT Index Fund Institutional Shares (20%) (VGSNX)

Retirement Strategy/Asset Allocation

Retirement Strategy/Asset Allocation (N/A)
Conservative Asset Allocation Portfolio (N/A)
Moderate Conservative Asset Allocation Portfolio (N/A)
Moderate Asset Allocation Portfolio (N/A)
Moderate Aggressive Asset Allocation Portfolio (N/A)
Aggressive Asset Allocation Portfolio (N/A)

I am 24 years old, and would like to be as aggressive as possible. I post this here, as I like to get the opinion of the financial geeks in this community. You're all very smart and money wise. TIA!

wheel

1-15-08, 6:34am

The Dodge & Cox International Stock Fund (DODFX) is a very good one if you have access to it. Normally, I choose Vanguard, but look at the performance and rating of that fund, it is very high.

Your REIT percentage might be a little high, as REITs are getting hammered not. They have had great performance in the past, but for balance you may want 5 - 10%, not 20%.

Why have 2 Large Cap, and I would choose Vanguard Windsor II Fund Admiral Shares (VWNAX)for its lower fees.

Ron Glaister

1-21-08, 9:42am

Seeing you were a fellow ACS'er, I had to reply...

First, Galliard Managed Income Portfolio is your best bet. Unfortunately, ACS doesn't offer much in Funds that will ride out the coming correction. In fact, it's alread started with Friday's fall of the US markets followed by the plunge of the World Markets today. My advice is for you to move all your ACS 401k funds into the optional SDA account (Call HR, they can explain). An SDA is offered by ACS and basically allows you to move all your funds to a Dreyfus account where you can openly trade on the market. You can buy Stocks, bonds, funds, etc. that are not available through ACS' 401k. Once you move your money, get into 3 or 4 different funds geared towards a Bear market. Review this list on MSN's Top Performers to see which are doing good over the last few months - Click the 'Bear Market' category:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/parts...ds/topfunds.asp

Bottom line, the market is going to take a deep dive and if you're not in funds that protect against this, you'll lose your hat. Bear Market funds, not Bonds or silly International funds, will do the best here. Though most Bear market funds get you into Gold, consider looking into on additional fund - a metals-based fund that specializes in Gold. Gold has been the only solid international currency since biblical times and it's not about to change.

If I were you, I'd move quickly because things are getting shakier by the day...

For those in previous posts talking about bonds or International stocks... Do your research. The decline of the dollar has caused the US to issue significant sums of IOUs. Shortly, international governments, to which the US owes tons of cash, will want a margin call. OPEC will change it's currency from the dollar to the Euro, further diminishing the dollar's value. Others will follow suit. US bonds won't be worth the paper they're printed on. International stocks? Which ones? China? China doesn't have a market without US purchases. Yes, they've taken steps to diversify their trading partners - but primarily with Europe. Europe's banking and trading system is so intertwined with the US' that what happens in the US happens in Europe. There goes the China thoughts... How about India? India falls under the same umbrella as China, sorry... Same with South Korea. Japan is slightly different but only 40%, roughly, is traded amongst other foreign countries - the rest is dependent on the good ole US of A. What about Russia? Russia's economy is almost entirely dependent upon oil exports. Their banking system is fragile. Just last week or so, their largest bank had a mass-exodus of it's top talent. Why? Because they see the down turn coming and know that in Russia, people mysteriously disappear when problems arise.

So there you have it... A quick and dirty view... Given recent events, I'd be surprised if the DOW is above
10,000 come 2 or 3 days after the end of the first quarter of 2008. I actually believe it will be closer to 9,000 at that time. Sorry for the doom and gloom, but I'm just telling you what's happening right before your eyes.

Here's something to consider (Check the facts): Quick number fact… In 1929, the start of the great depression was triggered by a 17% DOW slide from its peak, starting in early September and continuing for almost 2 months before the record daily loss of 13% on October 28^th followed by another 12% daily loss on the 29th. This continued until November 13^th, with the DOW closing under 200. Wanna guess how much the DOW’s lost over the last 3 months (Not including today's slide)? 17.4% (14,280 to 12,159)

Now there's a tough pill to swallow. Hopefully, it put's things in perspective for you folks who still think you should just 'ride the market out, it'll eventually pick back up'. That's old-school thought that will get you into deep trouble. You ride the market out during normal market fluctuations, not at the start of the next depression. :-)

QUOTE (unsmart3d @ 1-15-08, 7:10am)