15 Companies That Might Not Survive 2009 (Better start using up any gift cards you may have!)


Who's next?

With consumers shutting their wallets and corporate revenues plunging, the business landscape may start to resemble a graveyard in 2009. Household names like Circuit City and Linens 'n Things have already perished. And chances are, those bankruptcies were just an early warning sign of a much broader epidemic.

Moody's Investors Service, for instance, predicts that the default rate on corporate bonds - which foretells bankruptcies - will be three times higher in 2009 than in 2008, and 15 times higher than in 2007. That could equate to 25 significant bankruptcies per month.

We examined ratings from Moody's and data from other sources to develop a short list of potential victims that ought to be familiar to most consumers. Many of these firms are in industries directly hit by the slowdown in consumer spending, such as retail, automotive, housing and entertainment.

But there are other common threads. Most of these firms have limited cash for a rainy day, and a lot of debt, with large interest payments due over the next year. In ordinary times, it might not be so hard to refinance loans, or get new ones, to help keep the cash flowing. But in an acute credit crunch it's a different story, and at companies where sales are down and going lower, skittish lenders may refuse to grant any more credit. It's a terrible time to be cash-poor.

[See how Wall Street continues to doom itself.]

That's why Moody's assigns most of these firms its lowest rating for short-term liquidity. And all the firms on this list have long-term debt that Moody's rates Caa or lower, which means the borrower is considered at least a "very high" credit risk.

Once a company defaults on its debt, or fails to make a payment, the next step is usually a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing. Some firms continue to operate while in Chapter 11, retaining many of their employees. Those firms often shed debt, restructure, and emerge from bankruptcy as healthier companies.

But it takes fresh financing to do that, and with money scarce, more bankrupt firms than usual are likely to liquidate - like Circuit City. That's why corporate failures are likely to be a major drag on the economy in 2009: In a liquidation, the entire workforce often gets axed, with little or no severance. That will only add to unemployment, which could hit 9 or even 10 percent by the end of the year.

[Want to land a plum job without paying taxes? Here's how.]

It's possible that none of the firms on this list will liquidate, or even declare Chapter 11. Some may come up with unexpected revenue or creative financing that helps avert bankruptcy, while others could be purchased in whole or in part by creditors or other investors. But one way or another, the following 15 firms will probably look a lot different a year from now than they do today:

Rite Aid. (Ticker symbol: RAD; about 100,000 employees; 1-year stock-price decline: 92%). This drugstore chain tried to boost its performance by acquiring competitors Brooks and Eckerd in 2007. But there have been some nasty side effects, like a huge debt load that makes it the most leveraged drugstore chain in the U.S., according to Zacks Equity Research. That big retail investment came just as megadiscounter Wal-Mart was starting to sell prescription drugs, and consumers were starting to cut bank on spending. Management has twice lowered its outlook for 2009. Prognosis: Mounting losses, with no turnaround in sight.

Claire's Stores. (Privately owned; about 18,000 employees.) Leon Black's once-renowned private-equity firm, the Apollo Group, paid $3.1 billion for this trendy teen-focused accessory store in 2007, when buyout funds were bulging. But cash flow has been negative for much of the past year and analysts believe Claire's is close to defaulting on its debt. A horrible retail outlook for 2009 offers no relief, suggesting Claire's could follow Linens 'n Things - another Apollo purchase - and declare Chapter 11, possibly shuttering all of its 3,000-plus stores.

[See 5 pieces missing from Obama's stimulus plan.]

Chrysler. (Privately owned; about 55,000 employees). It's never a good sign when management insists the company is not going out of business, which is what CEO Bob Nardelli has been doing lately. Of the three Detroit automakers, Chrysler is the most endangered, with a product portfolio that's overreliant on gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs and almost totally devoid of compelling small cars. A recent deal with Fiat seems dubious, since the Italian automaker doesn't have to pony up any money, and Chrysler desperately needs cash. The company is quickly burning through $4 billion in government bailout money, and with car sales down 40 percent from recent peaks, Chrysler may be the weakling that can't cut it in tough times.

Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group. (DTG; about 7,000 employees; stock down 95%). This car-rental company is a small player compared to Enterprise, Hertz, and Avis Budget. It's also more reliant on leisure travelers, and therefore more susceptible to a downturn as consumers cut spending. Dollar Thrifty is also closely tied to Chrysler, which supplies 80 percent of its fleet. Moody's predicts that if Chrysler declares Chapter 11, Dollar Thrifty would suffer deeply as well.

Realogy Corp. (Privately owned; about 13,000 employees). It's the biggest real-estate brokerage firm in the country, but that's a bad thing when there are double-digit declines in both sales and prices, as there were in 2009. Realogy, which includes the Coldwell Banker, ERA, and Sotheby's franchises, also carries a high debt load, dating to its purchase by the Apollo Group in 2007 - the very moment when the housing market was starting to invert from a soaring ride into a sickening nosedive. Realogy has been trying to refinance much of its debt, prompting lawsuits. One deal was denied by a judge in December, reducing the firm's already tight wiggle room.

[See why "Wall Street talent" is an oxymoron.]

Station Casinos. (Privately owned, about 14,000 employees). Las Vegas has already been creamed by a biblical real-estate bust, and now it may face the loss of its home-grown gambling joints, too. Station - which runs 15 casinos off the strip that cater to locals - recently failed to make a key interest payment, which is often one of the last steps before a Chapter 11 filing. For once, the house seems likely to lose.

Loehmann's Capital Corp. (Privately owned; about 1,500 employees). This clothing chain has the right formula for lean times, offering women's clothing at discount prices. But the consumer pullback is hitting just about every retailer, and Loehmann's has a lot less cash to ride out a drought than competitors like Nordstrom Rack and TJ Maxx. If Loehmann's doesn't get additional financing in 2009 - a dicey proposition, given skyrocketing unemployment and plunging spending - the chain could run out of cash.

Sbarro. (Privately owned; about 5,500 employees). It's not the pizza that's the problem. Many of this chain's 1,100 storefronts are in malls, which is a double whammy: Traffic is down, since consumers have put away their wallets. Sbarro can't really boost revenue by adding a breakfast or late-night menu, like other chains have done. And competitors like Domino's and Pizza Hut have less debt and stronger cash flow, which could intensify pressure on Sbarro as key debt payments come due in 2009.

Six Flags. (SIX; about 30,000 employees; stock down 84%). This theme-park operator has been losing money for several years, and selling off properties to try to pay down debt and get back into the black. But the ride may end prematurely. Moody's expects cash flow to be negative in 2009, and if consumers aren't spending during the peak summer season, that could imperil the company's ability to pay debts coming due later this year and in 2010.

Blockbuster. (BBI; about 60,000 employees; stock down 57%). The video-rental chain has burned cash while trying to figure out how to maximize fees without alienating customers. Its operating income has started to improve just as consumers are cutting back, even on movies. Video stores in general are under pressure as they compete with cable and Internet operators offering the same titles. A key test of Blockbuster's viability will come when two credit lines expire in August. One possible outcome, according to Valueline, is that investors take the company private and then go public again when market conditions are better.

Krispy Kreme. (KKD; about 4,000 employees; stock down 50%). The donuts might be good, but Krispy Kreme overestimated Americans' appetite - and that's saying something. This chain overexpanded during the donut heyday of the 1990s - taking on a lot of debt - and now requires high volumes to meet expenses and interest payments. The company has cut costs and closed underperforming stores, but still hasn't earned an operating profit in three years. And now that consumers are cutting back on everything, such improvements may fail to offset top-line declines, leading Krispy Kreme to seek some kind of relief from lenders over the next year.

Landry's Restaurants. (LNY; about 17,000 employees; stock down 66%). This restaurant chain, which operates Chart House, Rainforest Café, and other eateries, needs $400 million in new financing to finalize a buyout deal dating to last June. If lenders come through, the company should have enough cash to ride out the recession. But at least two banks have already balked, leading to downgrades of the company's debt and the prospect of a cash-flow crunch.

Sirius Satellite Radio. (SIRI - parent company; about 1,000 employees; stock down 96%). The music rocks, but satellite radio has yet to be profitable, and huge contracts for performers like Howard Stern are looking unsustainable. Sirius is one of two satellite-radio services owned by parent company Sirius XM, which was formed when Sirius and XM merged last year. So far, the merger hasn't generated the savings needed to make the company profitable, and Moody's thinks there's a "high likelihood" that Sirius will fail to repay or refinance its debt in 2009. One outcome could be a takeover, at distressed prices, by other firms active in the satellite business.

Trump Entertainment Resorts Holdings. (TRMP; about 9,500 employees; stock down 94%). The casino company made famous by The Donald has received several extensions on interest payments, while it tries to sell at least one of its Atlantic City properties and pay down a stack of debt. But with casino buyers scarce, competition circling, and gamblers nursing their losses from the recession, Trump Entertainment may face long odds of skirting bankruptcy.

BearingPoint. (BGPT; about 16,000 employees; stock down 21%). This Virginia-based consulting firm, spun out of KPMG in 2001, is struggling to solve its own operating problems. The firm has consistently lost money, revenue has been falling, and management stopped issuing earnings guidance in 2008. Stable government contracts generate about 30 percent of the firm's business, but the firm may sell other divisions to help pay off debt. With a key interest payment due in April, management needs to hustle - or devise its own exit strategy.

Sadly, probably many more small companies that don't make lists like this. I read this article too, but I think that some of these companies may still survive in bankruptcy.

Our Sbarro closed up shop years ago...and KK bit the dust last year...I haven't set foot in a Claire's for years...but then, I've run out of teeners...

Can't say i'll miss any of them. Poorly run companies should get dumped. It's ashame we were forced into bailing out the automakers and banks.

Sirius looks to be first on the list to go bankrupt

Oh, I will miss Krispy Kreme!! Heaven on earth.

I know! This thread has got me thinking of stopping at Krispy Kreme tomorrow since I'll be driving right by one.

Even worse... I'm considering driving 45 minutes out of the way to the closest one!

Sirius Satellite Radio is contemplating bankruptcy, so this one looks to come true quickly.

Concerning Sbarro, today is a tough time to be in the restaurant business. Mall food courts, which traditionally do very well, are feeling the downturn in the economy as fewer people are making trips to the mall & they're spending less money. During a recent trip to a mall during lunch hours I saw Sbarro with alot of square footage, lots of food and few customers. My first thought is that they must be hommoraging money. Places offering low cost menu items like McDonalds are doing great...and I believe McDonalds is kicking Starbucks ass on coffee. McDonalds coffee is actually pretty good and a whole lot cheaper than Starbucks.

Krispy Kreme dug their own grave years ago with their financial misrepresentations. I'm surprised they're still around after what they did.

Blockbuster - their customer base has been shrinking for years. I believe today's tech savvy younger generation will never know what the inside of a video store ever looked like. Also, why should I waste time & gas to rent a DVD (overpriced I might add) that may not even be available. Video on demand without leaving the comfort of home is better IMO. Plus, there's always NetFlix.

Trump Entertainment - it used to be that everything Donald touched turned to gold....USED to be. The gaming industry in general is being hit hard these days, along with all entertainment/vacation destinations, so it doesn't surprise me that Station Casinos and Six Flags is on the list. Look for other vacation hot spots to turn into ghostowns as the downturn continues.

What surprises me is Rite Aid. I guess they're not making enough to pay their huge debt load due to increased competition. The population is getting older and people need their meds, but if there's less income coming in people need to cut back everywhere.

Even if krispy kreme does file bankruptcy, i don't see them liquidating. Probably will end up closing underperforming stores though.

Echostar will pick up sirius for cheap.

I'm also surprised by Rite Aid. It sounds like they took on too much with the last few acquisitions they made.

There were two Krispy Kreme stores in this area. One of them closed within the past couple weeks. Thankfully, one still exists, and it is the closer one to where I live.

Rite Aid News
Rite Aid to Sell 7 Locations In Downtown San Francisco and 5 Locations In Eastern Idaho to Walgreens
CAMP HILL, PA (February 5, 2009) -

Rite Aid Corporation (NYSE: RAD) announced today that is has signed an agreement to sell seven Rite Aid locations in downtown San Francisco and five Rite Aid locations in eastern Idaho to Walgreens. The transition to Walgreens is expected to be completed by the end of March, 2009. Rite Aid continues to operate 605 stores throughout California, including 42 stores in the Bay Area. Of the 31 states where Rite Aid operates, California has the second largest number of Rite Aid stores after New York.

The five eastern Idaho stores included in the transaction are located in Pocatello, Blackfoot, Twin Falls, Burley and Idaho Falls. Rite Aid continues to operate 14 stores in western Idaho, which borders Washington and Oregon where Rite Aid operates more than 200 stores and a distribution center.

"Our strategy is to focus our operations where we can best leverage the Rite Aid brand and operate most efficiently," said Chris Hall, Rite Aid senior vice president of strategic business development. "With only seven stores in all of the city of San Francisco we didn't have the critical mass to be successful there, and our stores in eastern Idaho are just too widespread and too distant from other Rite Aid locations to operate efficiently. This is a good transaction for Rite Aid."

Locations of the Rite Aid stores affected by the transaction are:

San Francisco
1300 Bush Street
5280 Geary Blvd.
1496 Market Street
776 Market Street
200 W. Portal Ave.
1830 Ocean Avenue
3931 Alemany Blvd.

Eastern Idaho
1000 Pocatello Creek Road, Pocatello
960 W. Bridge St., Blackfoot
1139 Addison Ave. East, Twin Falls
904 E. Main St., Burley
1745 W. Broadway St., Idaho Falls

another one (wasn't on the list) ...

Charter Communications To File For Bankruptcy Under Debt Pact

Paul Allen is a major stockholder in Charter. IMHO, judging by the action of some at one payment office, too many deadbeats for customers. Between constant TV ads and promo, I wouldn't guess the stock is in the crapper.

No if and or but, the Chineses would have shot the owners and sent a bill for the bullets to the families weeks ago.



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...V4&refer=us

Just been reported that this company has filed for bankruptcy. Also Trump, who owns 28% of the stock, resigned last week.

A little off topic but a propos of Kas' post:

Do not read during lunch hour.

I learned similar facts over 30 years ago in my high school government class. What gets under my skin is being in the men restroom and watching male employees not washing their hands before leaving. Proper santation keeps customer from being deadly ill or even death.

Heh, heh....vegetarian.....NOT!

Generous (that is to the UAW) Motors common stock has drop to $1.57 a share. To put it in better terms, a cup of coffee at a sit-down restuarant now cost you more.

Bye-Bye BBI

too funny.....and blockbuster was actually considering picking up Circuit City last year.

Yep, my thoughts exactly.

OK, BBI says it is not filing for bankruptcy, but is looking to raise capital and refinance debt. We'll see how this plays out over the next few months.

Now that I think of it, I think I have one Blockbuster gift card, I better use it before they go totally under!

The last six Virgin Record Stores are scheduled to close this summer. While profitable, the decline in CD sales is the reported reason with over 1000 getting the pink slip.

Couple of billionaires lost their shirt and not at the tables.



http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2009/mar/0...efault-on-debt/

I'm surprise Pier 1 Import is not on that list..

Do you guys think that StarBucks or Au Bon Pain would have any chance of falling down?

by falling down do you mean go out of business? starbucks probably not but will be hurting during this difficult economy. not sure about Au Bon Pain.

On or about Feb. 5 Pier 1 Imports said it plans to cut 10 percent of its full-time positions and may close up to 125 stores. The stock is at 23 cents.

I don't know what Au Bon Pain is as there aren't any in my area, but from looking at their website it appears they are an upscale sandwich place with around 200 locations in the United States, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. I would think some stores will be able to remain profitable while others may close.

As for Starbucks, I think more store closings are in their future, but the company itself will survive as long as they close the under performing stores.

With any food service business I believe location, service, product and price is the key to survival. I believe the stores with good locations, exceptional service and can adjust pricing to what people are willing to spend these days will survive. I think higher end places that cannot adjust their pricing & product mix in this environment will need to close some locations or even fail outright.

McDonalds is doing very well these days. People still want to eat out and are going where the value is. When money is tight why spend $20 on dinner when your stomach can be filled for $5? Sure, the food certainly isn't the same, but the extra $15 can go a long way.

Well said, Alan. This morning I saw more than 20 guys in line @ my fav McD's, yet only 1 guy in Au Bon Pain and 1 gal in Starbucks. Remember this is in Central Sq, Cambridge, where all the liberal rich trust fund kids from Harvard live.

Yet it might well be that those never get up that early.

that and the fact that McD's coffee is just as good if not better than starbucks....

McDonalds sure took alot of the morning coffee market. They have the locations, a decent coffee product and the price people will pay. I thinnk one of their major advantages is the drive-thru. So much more convenient than having to get out of the car to stand in line....although lines have gotten shorter.

You have to love the Blockbuster turnaround plan that was implemented over the past year.

I can just see the discussion in the board room:

Rentals are down? The economy is bad? People just aren't renting videos the way that they used too? What do we do guys?

Hey, let's reinstate late fees (call them something else), do away with the free grace period for late returns that we spent so much in a multimillion-dollar ad campaign getting people all excited about just a couple years ago (and which we used to distinguish ourselves from all of those "other" video stores that do charge late fees), de-enrich all of the monthly fee rental plans so that they cost more and people get less, shorten rental periods to two days for all movies to increase those newly reinstated and renamed late fees (from either three days or a week with a free grace period of 7 days), and raise prices!!! That will really get people back in the stores and excited about renting videos again!

no kidding... they did that? Oy Vey!

From shoppingblog.com...

Yankee Candle Closing 28 Illuminations Stores, 1 Yankee Candle Store

Yankee Candle has announced restructuring plans that will include closing the company's 28 Illuminations retail stores and the discontinuance of the related Illuminations consumer direct business. It sounds like they will also be closing the Illuminations website. They will also be closing 1 underperforming Yankee Candle retail store. The stores will close by April 30, 2009. They will also be laying off 330 employees.

"Decisions like these which affect our employees are very difficult ones," said Craig Rydin, Chairman and CEO of Yankee Candle. "But given this unprecedented macro-economic environment, particularly in the retail sector, we believe that this restructuring plan is necessary and appropriate as part of our ongoing efforts to reduce our cost structure, focus our resources primarily on our core Yankee Candle business, optimize our return on invested capital and increase our overall operating efficiency. The limited reductions in our corporate workforce are likewise designed to further streamline our organization and right-size our G&A and overhead structure in this difficult and challenging environment. It is important to note that the Illuminations brand remains an important strategic asset and component of our product portfolio, and that we plan to continue to develop and market Illuminations branded products primarily through our core Wholesale business. In addition, this action has no impact on our plans for Yankee Candle retail store growth, and we currently expect to continue to open new Yankee Candle retail stores at a pace similar to that of recent years."

http://www.dmnews.com/Yankee-Candle-to-clo...article/126202/

Illuminations stores are SO much cooler than Yankee Candle stores.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/stock_quote?Symbol=BBI


http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Inves...-the-brink.aspx

From this morning's Trib...

Filene's Basement files Ch. 11
The Associated Press
8:16 AM CDT, May 4, 2009

Discount retailer Filene's Basement says it has filed to reorganize under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, less than two weeks after its new owner said it was reviewing "all available options." The privately held company also reached a deal that will allow a Crown Acquisitions affiliate to buy 17 of its 25 stores, including its flagship locations in Boston and New York. The agreement is subject to a bankruptcy court auction, which is expected in about five weeks. The auction will allow other companies to submit bids for the 17 stores, as well as for the rest of the Filene's Basement locations and the chain's other assets. New York-based Crown, a real estate and asset management company, plans to continue running the 17 stores under the Filene's Basement name. Buxbaum Group, a California-based liquidator, acquired Filene's last month through an affiliate company, FB II Acquisition Corp. The sale came after the previous owner, Retail Ventures Inc., said the chain was experiencing "significant liquidity problems."

Filene's Basement, known for its "Running of the Brides" wedding gown sale, was founded more than a century ago in Boston.

Acccckkkk!!! Filene's Basement???? I always dreamed of going there and I hoped that one day they'd open a store in California!! Yuck!!

GM bankruptcy would be risky, but looks likely

IMHO, why invest at work when there now a good chance the government will screw you over. Like the banks, two domestic automakers found taking bailout money is tainted. The Obama administration has decided the UAW, a bunch of clown with no real money invested, should do far better than bond holders. Let not forget that often these bonds were purchases with the savings of teachers and public servants.

So it's no longer a joke that GM is now Government Motor. Soon we will be driving a car made by the feds, insured by AIG-gov and if there is an accident, covered by universal health care. We are make a full left U-turn into Unite States of Soviet Union.

Monga: don't worry about Filene's Basement, I have been in Boston for 5 years and only been there once.

That's funny, my experience with drive-thrus is just the opposite. I rarely use them, because most times I see a line of 10 cars backed up and nobody inside. I park quickly, run inside, get my food, and I'm out before 2 or 3 cars have moved. Not always, but that's usually what I see.

this was on CNN. Did GM just get a miracle?

Edit: doesn't look like it.

According to the NY times it just helps them pull out of bankruptcy faster http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/...lder-committee/

Breaking news from the Chicago SunTimes...

FAO Schwarz will close in all Macy's stores in November

Exclusive: FAO Schwarz stores will cease to operate inside Macy's department stores in November, as a result of Toys R Us' takeover of the high-end toy store. "We're disappointed," said Robin Reibel, group vice president of media relations and cause marketing for Macy's. Macy's has not yet decided what will replace the FAO Schwarz toy stores in 278 Macy's stores. The FAO Schwarz toy stores were previously planned to be opened in 685 Macy's stores by 2010.
• Related: Toys R Us acquires FAO Schwarz

Story

Should you put all in for GM yesterday, you just triple your money today!!!

Six Flags files for bankruptcy

Never was too impressed with those Eddie Bauer Ford Bronco or Brono II.

Eddie Bauer files for bankruptcy

Once-Trendy Crocs Could Be on Their Last Legs

John Duerden Responds


Maybe it's the knock-offs that have hurt them...I'm wearing my moc Croc Mary Janes I found @ The Evil Empire for $1 on the clearance rack...just love them... But a buck's the most I'd pay for rubber shoes...